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Is Theresa May’s reversal of her previous position, in deciding to call a snap election, to win a greater mandate for Brexit – or is she trying to sabotage it by giving voters one more chance to reject it?

20 Apr

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s apparent change of heart and resulting decision to call an early election has been approved by a two/thirds majority, but what is her intent? To, as per the conventional wisdom, gain a greater mandate for Brexit so she can bargain from a position of strength, or is it to betray Brexit?

A June General Election now would not be a normal one. Like the Peers v the People Election of 1910 it will be predominantly about a single issue, namely, Brexit. Indeed, it could reasonably be portrayed as a proxy for re-running the EU Referendum.

There is a considerable psychological difference between voting in a referendum with a clear cut yes or no decision for the voter to make and a General Election, which is about choosing a people to make decisions on a multiplicity of subjects for several years. Many of those who voted to Leave the EU are not natural Tory voters, especially those working-class Labour voters who did much to win the referendum. Those voters may not be anything like as willing to vote for a Tory government as they were to vote for Brexit.

Motivation to vote will also be important. It is arguable that the remainers will tend to be more strongly committed to vote than Brexiteers simply because they were the referendum losers and consequently will be without any feeling of complacency. They will see this as an occasion to vent their anger and frustration. Brexiteers may be more inclined to think that the Brexit job is, if not done, is at least on a track from which it cannot be derailed and be less inclined to vote, especially if they are the people who are not natural Conservatives.

Remainer voters will also be energised by the fact that May has said repeatedly that she would not attempt to call an early General Election. Some leave voters may also feel uneasy about this and be persuaded not to vote on 8 June.

Finally, there is sheer voter fatigue. British voters have had a General Election in 2015, the EU referendum in 2016 and face local elections. Scottish voters had the independence referendum in 2014 and Northern Ireland had devolved elections in March 2017. Getting voters out for elections where voters are voting for parties have been in decline since the 1950s. It is probable that the turnout of a June General Election will be significantly below the turnout for the EU referendum which saw a turnout of 72%. If the turnout was significantly below this the remainers will use it to cast aspersions on May’s claim that she had a mandate from the British people.

All of this adds up to a need for all those who want to see Brexit completed to be both committed to the coming election and to think forward beyond it. If, as seems most likely, Theresa May comes back from the election with a substantial majority that does not mean Brexiteers can relax. A large majority might allow May to push Brexit through but it will also allow her to be dishonest. It should never be forgotten that she is a remainer and most of her cabinet and Parliamentary Party are remainers. They would in their heart of hearts like to have something far less than Brexit. Already there have been disturbing signs of May’s intentions to sabotage the vote to leave. For example, in the prime areas for Brexit of immigration and the Single Market, Home Secretary Amber Rudd says immigration may not drop significantly after Brexit, while the supposedly rock solid Brexiteer David Davis suggested in December that the UK might pay a fee to the EU to retain access to the Single Market.

The watchword for Brexiteers must be as ever eternal vigilance. Start counting the spoons.

Time will tell, perhaps, whether May is betraying the British people the way Trump has betrayed reactionaries.

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28 Comments

Posted by on April 20, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

28 responses to “Is Theresa May’s reversal of her previous position, in deciding to call a snap election, to win a greater mandate for Brexit – or is she trying to sabotage it by giving voters one more chance to reject it?

  1. realgaryseven

    April 20, 2017 at 2:20 am

    Of course she’s trying to sabotage it; she’s woman! Women do not belong in politics, military, firefighting, etc. Spare me the exceptions, which only prove the rule.

    It is beyond me how once great former nations now have women in men’s jobs while the men… do what, exactly, give fucking birth???

     
  2. Sanne

    April 20, 2017 at 5:47 am

    Like we would take them back. Really, who’s writing these articles? They officially triggered the divorce proceedings, there is no going back any more. As for her being a woman – do you really think that decisions of these magnitude are taken by one person? She’s just a face they chose to represent them. They often choose women for these kinds of jobs, if they screw up, everybody will just shrug their shoulders and say, “well, what else to expect from a woman”:)

     
    • infowarrior1

      April 20, 2017 at 9:47 am

      Regardless women don’t belong in politics. And I think because normally women are easier to control so she is put into positions of power.

       
      • Sanne

        April 20, 2017 at 11:23 am

        Yes, that’s exactly the point I was trying to make:)

         
    • Will S.

      April 20, 2017 at 8:57 pm

      But denial is not rational…

      True, the real powers that be are as always behind the scenes…

       
  3. darkreformation101

    April 20, 2017 at 5:57 am

    Probably not.

    The reason she is doing it is probably the following:

    1: Golden opportunity to smash Labour.

    2: Golden opportunity to nip any new Scottish referendum.

    3: The election will NOT just be about Brexit, and because Labour will be decimated because of Corybn – who is lukewarm to verbally supportive of Brexit – it will be about who governs. However, May will use the election to push the claim that the entire British people are behind Brexit……..

    4: Which strengthens her hand in negotiations with Brussels. How? Because Brussels will not be able to negotiate from a strong position and wind down the clock till 2020 and hope for a new government. Now, they must face a government with a “mandate” that can go all the way to 2022.

    5: If May waited, there is a good chance Labour would have a new leader by 2018, then this leader would be more formidable than Corybn.

    6: It is also possible, that the French election may – may – have something to do her decision.

    However, I don’t really think May really wants Brexit, the comedy is that events have forced her hand to go through with it.

    Trump and Reactionaries.

    Who said Trump was ever a reactionary?

    One of the core ideas of neoreaction is the distinction between form and reality. Don’t pay so much attention to the form (word or text) and more to reality (action and consequences).

    So far, given everything he was up against in the deep state, he has done rather well – and it is only getting started.

    Remember, Trump, like politicians, wants to get and keep power.Thus, what he must aim for is re-election in 2020. In order to win in 2020 he will need to not only maintain his base, but expand it.

    In all likelihood, outside of a blackswan, Trump will win. The left is going down to defeat everywhere, however, because we still have democracy, Trump will have to pander to people.

    This game is a marathon, and not a sprint, and the prize is power – always and everywhere.

    What Trump just did over the last several weeks, is to make him look human/sentimental/humanitarian and also strong/decisive and competent with the Syrian strike.

    He has killed the the whole “Hitler thing” by “crying” over babies.

    Hitler never cried over babies.

    Also, Trump – seemingly – has “put” Bannon in his place – is a great move politically.

    Why?

    Because Trump can make it look to the media that all the “ugly stuff” get’s put onto Bannon – this makes Trump look like a “moderate” – which helps with his public relations.

    Also, by knocking Bannon down a bit, it makes Trump look like he is in charge and not Bannon.

    Now, has anything of substance changed with Bannon? He got removed from the “chair”, but he can still sit on the NSC. He still has access to the President.

    If Bannon, Miller, Gorka and Anton get shit-canned, start to worry. If Sessions get’s stumped, or starts to cuck, start to worry.

    Is the above true?

    Maybe, maybe not.

    The above is a coherent interpretation of the facts.

    There can be many different coherent interpretations however.

    Perhaps, the only way we can really judge all of this is from the perspective of history – that is after the events in question have long past.

     
    • bilejones

      April 20, 2017 at 8:21 pm

      You do lead a rich fantasy life, don’t you?

       
    • Will S.

      April 20, 2017 at 8:58 pm

      I hope you’re right.

       
      • darkreformation101

        April 21, 2017 at 8:30 am

        The Tory part is not conservative, in any shape or form. I agree with Hitchens that Brexit happened because of Cameron’s political incompetence. The reasons for the Brexit vote have not are are not going to be addressed. What England needs is a genuine Royalist Party. Absolute power should be restored to the Monarchy, Parliament should be abolished, the entire legal system re-written – along with a written and real constitution.

         
  4. Cecil Henry

    April 20, 2017 at 9:11 am

    Yup, every chance to stop Brexit and muddy the path will be taken. These people are parasites.

    Elections are not guaranteed for all kinds of trivial, stupid and random reasons. You don’t give yourself a chance to lose unless you want to.

     
    • Will S.

      April 20, 2017 at 8:58 pm

      As some have said, “If elections actually changed anything, they’d already have been banned.” 😉

       
  5. Sean

    April 20, 2017 at 1:57 pm

    Nah, Corbyn’s the opposition. She’ll kill him electorally so badly he’ll require surgery and a new name. Brexit, I believe, cannot be stopped now either since Article 50 was invoked.

     
    • Will S.

      April 20, 2017 at 8:59 pm

      That should be the case…

       
  6. scarecrow72

    April 21, 2017 at 8:03 pm

    Trump did betray reactionaries. Thank you for pointing this out.

     
    • Will S.

      April 21, 2017 at 8:07 pm

      You’re welcome.

       
  7. HerewardMW

    April 22, 2017 at 7:53 am

    The headlines this morning are full of stories about the conservatives planning to raise taxes and break the pensions pledge after the election. The source of the story was Philip Hammond, the Chancellery of the Exchequer.

    I’m not ready to say you’re right just yet, but that’s​ an ominous sign.

     
  8. Will S.

    April 22, 2017 at 7:58 am

     
  9. HerewardMW

    April 23, 2017 at 3:16 am

    Polls after the Hammond “slip” on tax and pensions.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half

     
    • Will S.

      April 23, 2017 at 7:49 am

      Interesting. So, either the Tories are simply bungling, or she is trying to lose…

       

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