Just How Likely Is Another World War? By Grahan Allison

02 Aug

An interesting, thought-provoking essay, even though it came from the Atlantic. 🙂

(Hat tip: oogenhand.)

Fortuna's Corner


So which are more salient: the similarities or differences? Weighing the array on both sides, would a Martian strategist comparing conditions in January 1914 with those at the beginning of 2014 judge the likelihood today of great-power war significantly higher or lower? For the “complacent” who live in what Gore Vidal labeled the “United States of Amnesia,” the similarities should serve as a vivid reminder that many of the reasons currently given for discounting threats of war did not prevent World War I. In particular, the fact that war would be irrational does not make it unthinkable. For “alarmists” who extrapolate from the past to predict imminent disaster, the May Method provides a salutary correction. For myself, this exercise in historical analysis leads me to conclude that the probability of war between the U.S. and China in the decade ahead is higher than I imagined before examining the analogy-but…

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Posted by on August 2, 2014 in America, Brave New World Order


3 responses to “Just How Likely Is Another World War? By Grahan Allison

  1. sfcton

    August 2, 2014 at 1:08 pm

    Well I reckon the usa is still to powerful right now for anyone to take on directly. However, as the usa grows weaker, the odds increase especially because americans do not want to recognise the growing weakness.

    If I had the budget, I could rip the usa apart with ease. Fortunately evil minded men like me.don’t have the budget.

  2. Will S.

    August 2, 2014 at 1:35 pm



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